Dry Spanish Autumn Trims Global Olive Oil Output ~4% for 2025/26
The International Olive Council puts 2025/26 global olive oil output near 3.44 million tonnes, down ~4%, as drought cuts Spain's crop and Jaén — the world's top region — revises its outlook down ~20%.
TL;DR — A hot, dry autumn in Spain cut the International Olive Council's 2025/26 global olive oil forecast ~4% to roughly 3.44 million tonnes, with the world's largest growing region, Jaén, lowering its outlook ~20%.
Olive oil is one of the few staples where a single bad autumn in one Spanish province moves the world figure. That is the 2025/26 story: a hot, dry stretch across Spain — source of nearly half of global olive oil — clipped the harvest just as the market was steadying after a multi-year price crisis.
The number
The International Olive Council (IOC) estimates 2025/26 global production near 3.44 million tonnes, down roughly 4% year-on-year. It follows a bumper 2024/25, when output jumped 38% to around 3.57 million tonnes as the drought eased.
This is a dip, not a relapse into crisis — but a diagnostic one, given its origin.
Concentration risk: one province
Spain remains Europe's dominant producer at an estimated 1.37 million tonnes — three to eight percent under the October 2025 forecasts of roughly 1.44 million tonnes, per Olive Oil Times. Weather drove it: a hot, dry autumn shrank fruit size and oil content, with non-irrigated groves hit hardest.
The sharpest cut landed in Jaén — the single largest olive oil region on earth — which revised down by about 20%, citing drought and absent autumn rain. The global balance sheet tracks Jaén more tightly than any other single producer.
| Region / metric | 2025/26 figure |
|---|---|
| Global production | ~3.44M tonnes (−~4%) |
| 2024/25 (prior year) | ~3.57M tonnes (+38%) |
| Spain output | ~1.37M tonnes |
| Jaén outlook revision | ~−20% |
| Global consumption (est.) | ~3.25M tonnes (+1%) |
The structural read is climate variability
Past the year-to-year noise sits the pattern agronomists watch. The IOC flags a cluster of climate-linked stresses across the Mediterranean: a hot, dry autumn in Spain, ongoing drought in Crete, and the olive fruit fly surfacing in parts of Italy and Greece. Olive trees also cycle naturally between heavy and light years — "alternate-bearing" — and climate volatility deepens the down years.
A peer-reviewed analysis in Sustainability Science this cycle stated it plainly, examining "how climate change interferes with olive oil production": drought, heat stress and erratic rainfall increasingly decide whether a harvest is strong or merely survivable.
The counterintuitive part: prices are easing
Despite the smaller crop, retail prices have softened from the 2024 crisis peak, because the large 2024/25 harvest refilled the pipeline. The IOC's January/February 2026 data shows Spain's Jaén benchmark down 2.5% year-on-year, with Italy's Bari quote off a striking 30.9%. A 4% production dip does not clear that glut quickly — but it is precisely the climate-driven wobble that keeps long-run prices structurally above the pre-crisis era.
FAQ
Why does Spain matter so much for olive oil prices?
Spain produces close to half the world's olive oil, and a single province — Jaén — is the largest growing region on the planet. A weather shock there moves the global supply number in a way no other producer can, which is why a dry Spanish autumn becomes everyone's problem.
If production fell, why isn't olive oil getting more expensive?
Because the record 2024/25 harvest refilled stocks after years of scarcity. That glut is still working through the supply chain, so prices have eased from crisis highs even though 2025/26 output dipped about 4%. A modest decline doesn't immediately reverse a large surplus.
Is climate change permanently threatening olive oil?
It's making harvests more volatile rather than ending them. Drought, heat stress and erratic rainfall increasingly determine whether a year is strong or weak, and researchers expect that variability — layered on olive trees' natural alternate-bearing cycle — to keep long-term prices structurally elevated.
Sources: International Olive Council (Dec 2025), International Olive Council (Jan/Feb 2026), Olive Oil Times, Sustainability Science.
Image: Arnaud 25, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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